While Blu-ray and D-DVD battle it out for the successorship of DVD, Microsoft is quietly, but steadily gaining popularity for its WMV HD (Windows Media High Definition Video). Based on the successful Windows Media 9, this format not only lives up to the resolution requirements of HDTV, it can be coupled with complete DVD authoring solutions tied in with the windows operating system. Due to its characteristics, WMV-HD programming can be recorded onto standard DVDs, and played back on standard DVD players or DVD-ROM drives with WMV-HD firmware/software support. No new major retooling of manufacturing facilities are required. In addition, WMV HD provides complete support for digital multi-channel audio. As a result, you may see a more integration of PCs with full home theater systems, as WMV HD-equipped PCs enter the market.
EVD - The China Factor
While the Japanese companies clearly dominate the DVD technology market, it is the Chinese than dominate the DVD manufacturing market. It is the proliferation of Chinese-made DVD players that has caused the prices of DVD players to plummet drastically in the last two years, to the piont where now basic DVD players are no longer a profit center for retailers, but are considered commodities; loss leaders to bring customers into the store in hopes they will buy either higher-end DVD players and recorders, or a new digital TV to go along with that new DVD player.
However, this could change as China, exerting its new muscle in the consumer electronics business, has come up with its own DVD format, called EVD (Enhanced Video Disc). Currently, Chinese-based manufacturers of DVD players must pay royalties to Japanese and European holders of DVD technology patents in order to gain the ability to legally sell their DVD products around the World. Although this does not cause an undo financial burden on Chinese manufacturers, it is perceived as a "restrictive tax" that, if eliminated, would shave a few dollars of each unit, and also allow the Chinese to put in their own innovations. Therefore, a consortium of Chinese consumer electronics manufacturers came up with the EVD format as a possible means to release themselves from the DVD patent holders and allow them to exercise more muscle in the consumer electronics technology arena as well as the manufacturing arena.
It is reported that EVD will offer optical pickup technology, combined with a new compression technology, that will enable EVD to rival the performance characteristics of Blu-ray and HD-DVD. In other words, EVD will be able to output HD resolutions without the need for upscaling, as in current DVD. Also, although EVD players would be more expensive than standard DVD players, they are expected to be much less than the forthcoming Blu-RAY or HD-DVD units from Japan. There is no word on recordability with EVD. Questions also remain with regards to any potential movie studio or market distribution support outside of China and neighboring countries. If Hollywood and the big box retailers don't go along, EVD may gain independence for Chinese companies from the DVD patent holders, but may severly restrict their success in the overall Worldwide consumer electronics marketplace.
My DVD Predictions for 2004
In conclusion, this has been a brief overview of what lies ahead for DVD in the coming year or so.
My predictions are:
1. The biggest growth in DVD will be in recordable DVD, especially DVD recorder/VCR combinations, enabling consumers to easily incorporate both DVD and VCR recording into their lifestyle.
2. In addition, the introduction, of the ApeXtreme DVD player/PC game console combination may serve to bring the PC gamer out from behind the computer and into the living room, with the rest of the family entertainment system is set up.
3. Lastly, HDTV will definitely influence the further evolution of DVD, with more DVD players equipped with scalers and DVI-outputs that allow DVDs to be viewed in high definition, as well as the introduction of the BluRAY and HD-DVD native high resolution DVD formats.
Will my predictions be accurate? Just bookmark this article and check in January/February 2005!
